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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."